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Thabiso KaliEnergy engineer · CEM

Riverbend Solar · Part 9 of 10

Checking the model, two ways

Project Finance, Renewable Energy, South Africa, Model Review

Article

Fast is useless if it's wrong. So Riverbend is checked two ways: against itself and against a model I didn't write.

Against itself:

The workbook rebuilds the engine in live Excel formulas, with inputs only on the Assumptions tab. Then:

  • CF Delta: every cash-flow line, every year, Excel minus engine. It reads zero.
  • Checks tab: balance sheet, cash, debt repaid at maturity, the cash-flow match and the engine's own controls, rolled into one master flag. ALL PASS.
  • Green Light Gate: 22 credit and integrity conditions. 22 of 22.

Against an independent model:

NREL's System Advisor Model, run through its own code with the same inputs. On the annuity case with 27% tax, every cash-flow line matches to the rand, and the equity IRR is 21.45% in both. On the sculpted case, the debt agrees within R350 on R505m.

And against a published South African case: Meridian Economics' 2020 levelised cost for solar PV. On the stated assumptions the engine lands at 65.4 c/kWh against 64.0 published.

Every one of these is rebuilt by a script on every run, not quoted from memory.

Next: one run to the full document set.

Riverbend Solar is an illustrative case study: a fictional deal with no real counterparty.

All 10 parts of Riverbend Solar